Understanding Variance in Poker
There is a lot of mathematics involved when determining the variance in poker, but for anyone to understand what a variance is, the concept should be explained in a simplistic, non-mathematical method.
Simply put, the variance in poker is the ups and downs of the game. Settling with that explanation, though, would be overly simplistic and not very complete.
A more detailed description of the variance is this: it is the difference between the average amount of money a player is expecting to win in the long run and the results s/he is seeing over a short period of time. For example, if you expect to win $200 on average but you lose $1000 instead, this is due to variance (or your lack of knowledge about it).
Variance in a game of poker can only be monitored and deduced over a long period of time. If you’ve only been playing poker for a day, it’s close to impossible to compute the variance of your games. Variance is also a tricky value to compute because it is controlled by one thing: one’s stroke of luck.
Aside from your luck, though, the variance is also controlled by your playing style, the poker game itself, the betting type and the game type. A more aggressive player would have a greater variance and is more likely to lose more money.
The game type Omaha has lesser variance compared to Hold’em poker. If the betting type is limitless, the variance of the game also increases (which means Limit Hold’em has higher variance than Pot Limit Hold’em). On a general note, the higher the risks involved in the game, the bigger the variance.
